Is war really inevitable?Russia, the United States and Ukraine have all dispatched their flagship troops and will organize large-scale exercises

2022-05-01 0 By

In order to peacefully resolve the Ukrainian issue, all parties are actively engaged in diplomatic mediation.The French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held a summit for serious talks on the situation in Ukraine.German Chancellor Angela Scholz also devoted her time to Ukraine during a visit to the United States.But until the Ukraine issue is settled, the risk of war remains, and both sides are preparing for the worst.Recently, Reuters reported that satellite images taken by an American private satellite company showed that Russia had moved large numbers of troops to various areas of the Border with Ukraine, and that a comparison of pictures taken on February 9 and 10 showed that the movement was continuing.Meanwhile, Russia is holding military exercises in the Black Sea;Belarus recently invited Russian troops into its territory for joint military exercises.This means that in the event of a war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia will be able to launch a strategic encirclement of Ukraine from three directions: east, north and south.Not to be outdone, the Ukrainian government held military exercises on February 10th in Kharkiv, a region east of the Dnieper River with a strong Pro-Russian bent and a russian-speaking population. The 92nd mechanized Infantry Brigade took part in the exercises.In the 2014 unrest in eastern Ukraine, Kharkiv once followed donetsk and Lugansk to declare “independence”, although pro-russian forces in eastern Ukraine also sent troops to support Kharkiv’s “independence”, but under the strong pressure of the Ukrainian government special forces, Kharkiv’s “independence” ultimately failed.Kharkiv is still controlled by the Ukrainian government, but Pro-Russian forces are still active there.Kharkiv is being held in part because it is close to donetsk and Lugansk, making it easier for the army to attack at any time.Moreover, Kharkiv is located in the north of the Donbas region, and once the war begins, The Ukrainian government forces are likely to launch attacks on the Pro-Russian armed forces in eastern Ukraine from the north and west of the Donbas region.On the other hand, holding military exercises in Kharkiv could also serve as a deterrent to Pro-Russian forces there.The 92nd mechanized Infantry Brigade, a downtrodden unit from the 6th Guard Division of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, has been on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the 2014 Donbas war.In the Battle of Debaltsevo, most of the Ukrainian government forces involved were annihilated or severely damaged by the Eastern Ukrainian forces supported by the Russian army, but the 92nd Brigade highlighted the encirclement of the Eastern Ukrainian forces with superior equipment and relatively strong combat effectiveness and did not suffer too much loss.Since then, the 92nd mechanized Infantry Brigade has been active in eastern Ukraine and has been successful in the battle against Pro-Russian forces.The significance behind the transfer of such a force with rich combat experience and considerable combat effectiveness to a sensitive area for the organization of military exercises is self-evident.In short, despite Russia’s repeated pledges not to launch an active attack on Ukraine, the risk of war is not negligible.In particular, it is extremely dangerous for Ukrainian government forces to organize military exercises in sensitive areas.Many media outlets, including this writer, have repeatedly pointed out that the Ukrainian government has very limited control over its military, and the so-called “volunteer” armed forces such as the Azov Battalion are “deaf to the propaganda” of the Ukrainian government.If these forces misjudged the situation and launched an attack on the Eastern Ukrainian armed forces or even the Russian army, it would lead directly to war.On February 6th the Ukrainian army launched a massive bombardment of eastern Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region.The United States is now sending frequent signals of support for Ukraine, and has moved the 82nd Airborne Division, the only American airborne division, to Poland, where it is stationed 90 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.That may encourage the Ukrainian army to stir up trouble again, but will the rebels in the east then be quiet?No one can guarantee that.In fact, as Spacer has repeatedly emphasized, the Ukraine issue today is ostensibly a dispute between Russia and Ukraine, but in essence it is a contest between Russia and the United States.As long as the United States does not promise to deny Ukraine NATO membership and stop its expansion;There can be no real peace in Ukraine without a commitment to respecting Russia’s core interests and giving it some strategic space.Problem as early as 2015, Ukraine all relevant parties to conclude the Minsk agreement, but it is precisely because America did not stop the pace of the compressed Russia’s strategic space, has not refused to Ukraine to join NATO, even about Ukraine’s ambiguous attitude, led to the contract only after months of difficult negotiations into rapidly become a waste paper.Therefore, even if the Ukrainian crisis is resolved through diplomatic mediation, if the United States still does not give up hegemonism and the delusion of establishing a unipolar world, the results of the mediation will be doomed to fail.